After a turbulent start to 2025, Ontario’s housing market continues to face pressure from high inventory levels, affordability challenges, and weakened buyer sentiment. RBC Economics now projects national home resales will decline by 3.5% this year , with much of that concentrated in Ontario and B.C. The anticipated post-rate-cut bounce has been slower to materialize, with the spring trade war temporarily disrupting the market. However, lower interest rates and easing uncertainty are beginning to draw buyers back in, signaling a slow but steady path to recovery. Looking ahead to 2026, RBC expects a 7.9% rebound in national home resales, reaching 504,100 transactions. While activity is expected to improve in Ontario, it will still lag behind the pre-pandemic five-year average of 511,000 units mostly due to affordability constraints, reduced immigration targets, and a softer labor market. Property values in Ontario are projected to see further downward pressure, with modest early-year gains in 2025 offset by price declines in late 2025 and into 2026. RBC forecasts a 0.7% national price increase in 2025 , followed by a 0.7% decline in 2026 , with Ontario and B.C. leading the drop due to oversupply and intense competition among sellers. Prices will vary significantly across the country . Balanced supply-demand conditions in the Prairies, Quebec, and parts of Atlantic Canada are expected to support modest price gains in 2025 and 2026. In contrast, Ontario and B.C. will continue to face challenges with imbalances in condo markets in Toronto and Vancouver likely spilling into other segments. Despite these challenges, improved affordability from lower mortgage rates and softer prices could unlock pent-up demand as conditions stabilize. While recovery may be uneven across regions, Ontario’s long-term fundamentals—population growth, urban demand, and economic diversification—remain strong. Buyers and sellers alike should prepare for a market that’s slowly regaining its footing but will take time to find true balance. Policy Interest Rate The Bank of Canada (BoC) paused the Policy Interest Rate on July 30, 2025, balancing the need to contain inflation with supporting economic growth. The next Interest Rate Announcement is set for Thursday September 4, 2025. The BoC’s Policy Interest Rate is currently set at 2.75%. Current Variable Mortgage Rate : 4.30% as of August 8, 2025 Current Prime Rate : 4.95% as of August 8, 2025 Policy Interest Rate : 2.75% as of August 8, 2025 Total Consumer Price Index : 1.9% Inflation as of June 2025 We aim to help you compare rates and terms to find the most suitable mortgage option based on your financial goals and preferences. Whether you’re looking for a short-term rate with flexibility or a long-term rate for stability, our goal is to simplifies your decision-making process.

The Guelph real estate market continues to show resilience, especially in the Detached home segment, which remains a key driver of local activity. While overall sales volume dipped—112 homes sold in July, down 11.1% from June and 17.9% year-over-year—pricing in Guelph has held relatively firm. The average sale price came in at $861,321, representing a 6.4% decline from the previous month but still up 2.3% compared to July 2024. Notably, new listings were down sharply, with only 234 properties hitting the market—33.7% fewer than the same time last year—contributing to tight supply and continued competition for well-priced Detached homes. Properties are also taking slightly longer to sell, averaging 27 days on market, which is up by a week compared to last year, but overall, the fundamentals of the market remain strong, especially as buyers look ahead to more favorable borrowing conditions. Property Segment highlights Detached homes : $880,083 (↓ 8.15% MoM | ↑ 2.06% YoY) Townhomes : $774,429 (↑ 2.27% MoM | ↓ 3.89% YoY) Condos : $597,310 (↑ 11.63% MoM | ↑ 10.85% YoY) While sales volume has cooled, prices are holding steady—or climbing—in several segments, especially condos. If you’re considering a move, a valuation, or just want to better understand what this means for your property or investment, I’m happy to connect. Watch the video below for a point of view tour of a 6-bedroom townhome near the University of Guelph!

The Guelph real estate market showed signs of cautious activity in May and June, as affordability slowly improves across the country. According to RBC Economics, lower interest rates and modest price easing have helped bring Canada's national affordability measure down to 55.1% in Q1 2025 — an improvement from 60.7% a year earlier. However, the path back to pre-pandemic affordability remains long, and buying conditions are still challenging in many cities, including Guelph. In June 2025, 126 homes were sold in Guelph — a 3.08% dip from May. The average sale price rose slightly to $920,496 , up 1.5% month-over-month, but still down 1.92% compared to June 2024. Segment trends were mixed: Detached homes : $958,189 (+3.00% MoM / -1.53% YoY) Townhouses/Row Units : $757,250 (-1.75% MoM / -2.67% YoY) Apartments/Condos : $535,104 (+4.88% MoM / -8.51% YoY) The average days on market increased to 24 , suggesting buyers remain selective. Meanwhile, sellers received 98% of their list price on average, reflecting a more balanced but price-sensitive environment. As interest rate cuts continue to lower ownership costs and buyer confidence potentially grows with broader economic stability, Guelph could see more meaningful engagement later in the year. For now, activity is steady but tempered by ongoing affordability challenges. 

In this video, I walk you through the essentials of evaluating and buying a 15-unit apartment building in Guelph. From assessing building systems and financing options to spotting red flags during due diligence, this tour is packed with practical advice for both new and experienced investors. If you're serious about scaling your real estate portfolio, this is a must-watch.

In this video, I walk you through the essentials of evaluating and buying an 8-unit apartment building in Ontario. From assessing building systems and financing options to spotting red flags during due diligence, this tour is packed with practical advice for both new and experienced investors. If you're serious about scaling your real estate portfolio, this is a must-watch.

As we move into spring, the Guelph real estate market continues to demonstrate stability amid a backdrop of national headlines, including the federal budget release, ongoing tariff discussions, and anticipation around the upcoming Canadian election.

In this third video, I walk through a recent purchase, breaking down the price, rental income, expenses, and return on investment. If you’re thinking about investing, this is a great way to see what’s working in today’s market!

In this second video, I walk through a recent purchase, breaking down the price, rental income, expenses, and return on investment. If you’re thinking about investing, this is a great way to see what’s working in today’s market!

In this first video, I walk through a recent purchase, breaking down the price, rental income, expenses, and return on investment. If you’re thinking about investing, this is a great way to see what’s working in today’s market!

As housing needs evolve, many homeowners in Guelph are exploring Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) as a way to maximize their property’s potential. Whether you're considering adding a basement apartment, an in-law suite, or a separate accessory dwelling, it’s important to understand the zoning bylaws and registration requirements.

Market Conditions: Where Are We Headed? The Evolving Role of Interest Rates in Home Affordability Interest rates have played a pivotal role in housing affordability over the past few years. Following a period of elevated rates designed to curb inflation, experts anticipate a gradual decline beginning in 2025. Should mortgage rates ease to approximately 3.5% for a five-year fixed term—with variable rates trending slightly lower—monthly payments will become more manageable, enhancing both affordability and buyer demand. As history has shown, declining rates typically fuel price appreciation—a dynamic that has repeated itself time and again in the housing market. Market Outlook: Price Trends & Inventory Home prices in Guelph and surrounding areas have remained resilient, with moderate single-digit growth projected for 2025. While certain markets, such as parts of Hamilton, may experience price corrections, areas with strong job markets and limited housing supply are expected to see continued appreciation, with year-over-year gains in the range of 4-6%. On the supply side, historically low inventory levels have challenged buyers, but an increase in new construction and seller activity could provide more options in the coming months. If more homes enter the market, buyers in Guelph and nearby areas may face less competition than in previous years—an advantage that may not persist in the long term. However, high-quality properties with superior square footage, larger lot sizes, and prime locations continue to attract strong demand, often receiving multiple offers, including cash bids. For buyers, securing the right property now could prove to be a strategic move before market conditions shift again. Is It the Right Time for You? Your Financial Readiness Before jumping into the market, assess your financial health: Do you have a solid down payment saved? Is your credit score strong enough for a favorable mortgage rate? Can you comfortably afford monthly payments, property taxes, and maintenance? The New First Home Savings Account is a great tool for saving for that first property be it investment or principle residence. If your financial foundation is strong, buying in 2025 could be a smart move, especially if rates decline and home prices continue to appreciate. Navigating Market Shifts: Federal Programs & Long-Term Strategies for Home Buyers New federal initiatives, such as the First Home Savings Account and updated Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) regulations allowing for minimum down payments on homes up to $1,500,000, aim to address affordability challenges in today’s market. These programs provide much-needed support for buyers looking to enter the market or move up the property ladder—especially in a landscape where elevated home prices have sidelined many prospective purchasers. Tom’s Final Thoughts: Should You Buy in 2025? While market fluctuations can create uncertainty, history has shown that time in the market consistently outperforms attempts to time the market. By prioritizing affordability and ensuring your purchase aligns with a sustainable, long-term strategy—whether as a primary residence or part of a broader investment plan—you position yourself for lasting success, regardless of short-term conditions. The decision to buy a home in 2025 will depend on a combination of market conditions and personal circumstances. If interest rates drop, inventory increases, and your financial situation is stable, buying could be a smart move. Thinking about buying in Guelph and surrounding area in 2025? Reach out to discuss your options and develop a strategy that fits your goals! POLICY INTEREST RATE The Bank of Canada (BoC) lowered the Policy Interest Rate on January 29th, 2025, balancing the need to contain inflation with supporting economic growth. The next Interest Rate Announcement is set for Wednesday, March 12, 2025. The BoC’s Policy Interest Rate is currently set at 3.00%.