March 2025 Sales Market Update

Tom Van Horne • May 13, 2025

As we move into spring, the Guelph real estate market continues to demonstrate stability amid a backdrop of national headlines, including the federal budget release, ongoing tariff discussions, and anticipation around the upcoming Canadian election.

Sales activity in March remained consistent year-over-year, reflecting steady demand supported by Guelph’s strong local economy, high quality of life, and strategic proximity to major urban centres. Inventory levels remain relatively balanced, with approximately 2.5 to 3 months of supply in Guelph and around 4 months in Wellington County.

Consistency was not the cause in other markets across Ontario as: “March saw more homebuyers retreating to the sidelines amid growing tariff threats—waiting to see what will happen to our economy next. This drove home resales down materially for a second straight time in many markets—reaching cyclically lows in southern Ontario, which is especially vulnerable to trade turbulence.” (RBC Economics)

This environment presents opportunities for both buyers and sellers, with market conditions expected to gradually pick up as we head into the spring selling season.

KEY INSIGHTS

Sales Volume:
Buyer activity picked up compared to the same period last year, though sales remained slightly below the five- and ten-year Q1 averages. This suggests cautious optimism among buyers, driven by stabilizing interest rates and improved inventory levels. The market continues to lean toward balanced conditions, giving buyers more breathing room while maintaining strong fundamentals for sellers.

Sales Price:
Home prices in Guelph continued their gradual upward trend in early 2025. The average sale price rose modestly year-over-year, while the benchmark price remained mostly flat. Detached homes held their value particularly well, supported by consistent demand. Meanwhile, townhomes and condos saw more variability, with some softness in pricing depending on location and condition. Overall, pricing reflects a stable market with mild appreciation, though buyers remain value-conscious.

Average Days on Market:
Homes in Q1 took an average of 28 days to sell, up slightly from last year. This reflects a return to more typical market conditions, where buyers are taking time to evaluate options and sellers must price competitively. Well-presented, move-in-ready homes are still moving quickly, but the days of immediate bidding wars are largely behind us—at least for now.

Monthly Supply of Homes:
Inventory levels in Guelph continued to improve, with months of supply creeping up to 2.4, compared to 1.8 during the same quarter last year. This increase means more choice for buyers and a more balanced playing field. While we’re not in a buyer’s market, conditions are certainly more favorable than in previous years—particularly for those shopping under the $800,000 mark.

Advice for Tenants:
For renters, Q1 brought a slight uptick in rental listings, especially in purpose-built rental buildings and new basement units. With more inventory on the market, renters may have a bit more negotiating power—but not for long. Demand for quality rentals near the university, downtown, and key transit routes remains high. If your lease is up soon, start your search early and be prepared to move quickly on well-priced units. Also, consider locking in a longer lease if stability is important, as rent prices could climb later in the year if mortgage rates drop and more buyers re-enter the ownership market.